Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira
Texto para Discussão do Departamento de Análise e Planejamento Economico da EAESP/FGV, no.4, fevereiro 1991. Escrito em 1974 e revisado em 1991. Este trabalho foi escrito com base em pesquisa de campo realizada em 1970, com a colaboração de Fernando Prestes Motta e Henrique Rattner, além de alunos da Fundação Getulio Varges ue trabalharam como entrevistadores.
Abstract. Starting from a classical perspective, this paper argues that variations in the expected profit rate and the corresponding shifts of the marginal efficiency of capital curve are more important in explaining investments than variations in the interest rate. To demonstrate this claim the paper surveys the empirical works on the matter, which usually find a feeble correlation between the interest and the investment rate, and discusses the literature on the subject, particularly the Modigliani-Miller cost of capital model. According to this model, the cost of capital is not the interest rate but the average profit rate. In the decision to invest, business enterprises require that the expected rate of profit is substantially higher than the cost of capital. In other words, there is a 'cushion pad' between the market interest rate and the expected rate of profit of each investment decision. Thus, to motivate entrepreneurs to invest it is not enough to lower the interest rate. It is necessary to create economic conditions favorable to substantial profit rates, which will increase the optimism of each business enterprises in relation to its investment projects.
